epidemiologyЭпидемиология и ВакцинопрофилактикаEpidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention2073-30462619-0494«Numicom» LLC10.31631/2073-3046-2026-25-1-4-11epidemiology-2370Research ArticleОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИORIGINAL ARTICLESГеномный эпидемиологический надзор и прогнозирование эпидемийGenomic Epidemiological Surveillance and Epidemic ForecastingАкимкинВ. Г.AkimkinV. G.

Акимкин Василий Геннадьевич, академик РАН, д. м. н., профессор, Заслуженный врач Российской Федерации, лауреат Премии Правительства Российской Федерации в области науки и техники, лауреат Премии Правительства в области медицинской науки, директор ФБУН Центральный НИИ эпидемиологии Роспотребнадзора

111123, г. Москва, ул. Новогиреевская, дом 3А

Akimkin Vasiliy Gennadievich – Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Honored Physician of the Russian Federation, laureate of the Government of the Russian Federation Prize in Science and Technology, and the Government Prize in Medical Science; Director of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Rospotrebnadzor

3A Novogireevskaya Street, Moscow 111123

ФГБУН НИИ Эпидемиологии РоспотребнадзораРоссияResearch Institute of Epidemiology, RospotrebnadzorRussian Federation202613032026251411Copyright © Акимкин В.Г., 20262026Акимкин В.Г.Akimkin V.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.epidemvac.ru/jour/article/view/2370

Актуальность. Современная эпидемиологическая ситуация в мире характеризуется высокой напряженностью, обусловленной сочетанием новых биологических вызовов и сохраняющихся традиционных угроз, что диктует необходимость разработки и имплементации инновационных подходов к реализации эпидемиологического надзора и прогнозированию развития эпидемического процесса инфекций, вызываемых известными и потенциальными возбудителями. Цель. Обоснование стратегии проактивной оценки эпидемиологических рисков на основе геномного эпидемиологического надзора для повышения эффективности предупреждения эпидемий и оптимизации противоэпидемических мер. Заключение. Современная парадигма прогностического эпидемиологического анализа опирается на объединение данных о геноме возбудителя с оценкой его эволюционного потенциала и эпигенетическом ответе организма хозяина, являющегося универсальным ранним маркером инфицирования, в том числе неизвестными ранее патогенами. Интеграция этих данных с цифровыми платформами позволяет реализовывать системный, многоуровневый геномный эпидемиологический надзор, который направлен на предупреждение возможных эпидемий и пандемий, а также разработку и оптимизацию противоэпидемических стратегий в системе общественного здравоохранения.

Relevance. The current global epidemiological situation is characterized by a highly challenging epidemiological situation caused by the combination of emerging biological challenges and persistent traditional threats, necessitating the development and implementation of innovative approaches to epidemiological surveillance and to forecasting the epidemic process of infections caused by known and potential pathogens. Aims. To substantiate a strategy for proactive assessment of epidemiological risks based on genomic epidemiological surveillance in order to improve epidemic prevention and optimize control measures. Conclusion. The modern paradigm of predictive epidemiological analysis relies on integrating pathogen genome data with assessment of its evolutionary potential and the host epigenetic response, which serves as a universal early marker of infection, including infections caused by previously unknown pathogens. Integration of these data with digital platforms enables a systematic, multi-level genomic epidemiological surveillance framework aimed at preventing possible epidemics and pandemics and at developing and optimizing public-health response strategies.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.