Modeling of the Potential Effect of Revaccination against Whooping Cough in Children Aged 6–7 and 14 years within the Framework of the National of preventive vaccinations

Relevance. Currently, the national calendar of preventive vaccinations does not provide for revaccination against whooping cough in children over the age of 18 months. At the same time, the epidemiological and economic feasibility of revaccination against whooping cough in children aged 6–7 years, as well as adolescents, has been demonstrated in world practice. Aim. Based on a mathematical model, develop a forecast of pertussis morbidity dynamics and assess the potential socio-economic damage under the current and expanded vaccine prophylaxis algorithms.

Methods. Mathematical modeling of the potential effect of revaccination against whooping cough in children aged 6–7 years (scenario 1) and at 6–7 years and 14 years (scenario 2) was carried out within the framework of the national calendar of preventive vaccinations. A simulation dynamic mathematical model is constructed that allows predicting the development of the epidemiological process of whooping cough on the basis of the dynamics of the main indicators of its prevalence in the population that developed in previous years. The model took into account dynamic changes in the preventive effectiveness of vaccinations and the potential level of underestimation of morbidity. The obtained arrays of indicators served as the basis for extrapolating trends in morbidity and mortality until 2034.The calculation of epidemiological benefits was carried out in the metrics of prevented loss of years of life under the two scenarios under consideration in comparison with the current vaccination algorithm. The calculation of the economic effect was carried out on the basis of the obtained indicators of epidemiological benefits in the metrics of the monetary equivalent of the average cost of a year of life, taking into account the projected inflation coefficients until 2034.

Results. The projected decrease in the number of years of life lived in a state of illness, in comparison with the current situation, will total 44.5 thousand years for the period 2019–2034 under scenario 1 and 66.7 thousand years under scenario 2. The socio-economic damage from prevented cases of the disease, expressed in the monetary equivalent of the average cost of living, will decrease by 28.6% (scenario 1) or 42.0% (scenario 2).

Conclusions. A comparison of the received public benefits with the costs of vaccination shows that the expansion of the NCPP with additional revaccinations against whooping cough (at 6–7 years or at 6–7 and at 14 years) is advisable both in epidemiological and economic aspects.

1. Pertussis vaccines: WHO position paper – August 2015. Weekly epidemiological record. 2015;90(35):433-460.

2. Basov A.A., Pimenova A.C., Tsvirkun O.V, et al. The epidemic process of whooping cough in the Russian Federation under conditions of mass specific prevention. Epidemiology and vaccination prevention. 2012;4(65):23-28 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2015-14-3-84-88.

3. Stepenko, A.V., Mindlina A. Ya. Epidemiological characteristics of whooping cough in the Russian Federation at the present stage. Journal of Infectology. 2020;12(2):142- 150 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.22625/2072-6732-2020-12-2-142-150.

4. Tatochenko V.K. Whooping cough is an unmanageable infection. Issues of modern pediatrics. 2014;13(2):78-82 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15690/vsp.v13i2.975.

5. Kostinov A.M., Kostinov M.P. The incidence of whooping cough and the effect of revaccination of preschool and school-age children. Infection and immunity. 2018;8(3):284- 294 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15789/2220-7619-2018-3-284-294.

6. Mikheeva I.V., Saltykova T.S., Mikheeva M.A. Expediency and prospects of pertussis vaccination without age restrictions. Journal of Infectology. 2018;10(4):14–23 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.22625/2072-6732-2018-10-4-14-23.

7. Subbotina K.A., Feldblum I.V., Kochergina E.A, et al. Epidemiological justification for changing the strategy and tactics of specific prevention of whooping cough in modern conditions. Epidemiology and vaccination prevention. 2019;18(2):27-33 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2019-18-2-27-33.

8. Zaitsev E.M., Mazurova I.K., Petrova M.S. Improving the diagnosis of whooping cough in adults with prolonged cough. Journal of Microbiology, Epidemiology and Immunobiology. 2009;2:70–75 (In Russ.).

9. Kurova N, Timofeeva E.V, Guiso N, et al. A cross-sectional study of Bordetella pertussis seroprevalence and estimated duration of vaccine protection against pertussis in St. Petersburg, Russia. 2018;(36)52:7936-7942. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.11.007.

10. Josefovich O.V., Harit S.M., Kaplina S.P, et al. The prevalence of whooping cough in long-term coughing children 6-17 years old, vaccinated at an early age with the DPT vaccine. Epidemiology and vaccination prevention. 2012;5(66):56–59 (In Russ.).

11. Rothstein E, Edwards K. Health burden of pertussis in adolescents and adults. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2005;24(5):44–S47. https://doi: 10.1097/01.inf.0000160912.58660.87.

12. Vittucci AC, Vennarucci SV, Grandin A, et al. Pertussis in infants: an underestimated disease. BMC Infect Dis. 2016;16(1):414. http://doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1710-0.

13. Siriyakorn N, Leethong P, Tantawichien T, et al. Adult pertussis is unrecognized public health problem in Thailand. BMC Infect Dis. 2015;16:25. https://doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1357-x.

14. Cherry JD. The Epidemiology of pertussis: A comparison of the epidemiology of the disease pertussis with the epidemiology of Bordetella pertussis infection. Pediatrics. 2005;115(6):1422–1427. https://doi: 10.1542/peds.2004-2648.

15. Guiso N. Whooping cough from infants to adults. Bull Acad Natl Med. 2008;192(7):1437-49.

16. Popova O.P., Mazankova L.N., Skirda T.A., et al. Clinical and diagnostic features of whooping cough in older children. Russian Bulletin of Perinatology and Pediatrics. 2019;64(4):70–75 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21508/1027-4065-2019-64-4-70-75.

17. Mikheeva I.V., Mikheeva M.A. Evaluation of the economic efficiency of revaccination against whooping cough in preschool children. Issues of modern pediatrics, 2019;18(6):470-477 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15690/vsp.v18i6.2068.

18. Prevention of pertussis, tetanus, and diphtheria with vaccines in the United States: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2018;67(2):1–44. https://doi: 10.15585/mmwr.rr6702a1.

19. Walker TY, Elam-Evans LD, Yankey D, et al. National, regional, state, and selected local area vaccination coverage among adolescents aged 13-17 years - United States, 2018. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2019;64(29):718–723. https://doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6429a3.

20. Namazova-Baranova L. S., Fedoseenko M. V., Baranov A. A. New horizons of the National Calendar of preventive vaccinations. Issues of modern pediatrics. 2019;18(1):13– 30 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15690/vsp.v18i1.1988.

21. Briko N. I., Feldblum I. V. Modern concept of vaccine prevention development in Russia. Epidemiology and vaccination prevention. 2019;18(5):4–13 (In Russ.). https://doi. org/10.31631/2073-3046-2019-18-5-4-13.

22. Bell CA, Russell ML, Drews SJ, Simmonds KA, Svenson LW, Schwartz KL, Kwong JC, Mahmud SM, Crowcroft NS. Acellular pertussis vaccine effectiveness and waning immunity in Alberta, Canada: 2010-2015, a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study. Vaccine. 2019;37(30):4140–4146. https://doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.05.067.

23. Briko N. I., Volkova O. I., Koroleva I. S., Kurilovich E. O., Popovich L. D., Feldblum I. V. Evaluation of the potential benefits of vaccination against meningococcal infection in children at 9 and 12 months using a predictive mathematical model. Epidemiology and vaccination prevention. 2020;19(5):84–92 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31631/2073- 3046-2020-19-5-84-92.

24. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) [Electronic resource] URL: http://www.healthdata.org/.

25. Carlsson R M, von Segebaden K, Bergström J, Kling A M, Nilsson L. Surveillance of infant pertussis in Sweden 1998–2012; severity of disease in relation to the national vaccination programme. Eurosurveillance. 2015;20(6):21032. https://doi : 10.2807/1560-7917.es2015.20.6.21032.

26. Senyagina N.E. Whooping cough. The current state of the problem. What is important for a practical doctor to know. Presentation at the X Interregional Forum of Pediatricians of the Volga Federal District «CHILDREN’S HEALTH WEEK 2020» «Healthy children - the future of Russia», May 27-28, 2020 (In Russ.).

27. Prokhorov B.B., Shmakov D.I. Estimation of the cost of statistical life and economic damage from health losses. Forecasting problems. 2002;3:125-135 (In Russ.).

28. Forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2036» Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario) (In Russ.). https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/a5f3add5deab665b344b47a8786dc902/prognoz2036.pdf.

29. Millier A, Aballea S, Annemans L, Toumi M., Quilici S. A critical literature review of health economic evaluations in pertussis booster vaccination, Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research. 2012;12(1):71–94. https://doi: 10.1586/erp.11.94.

30. Fernandes EG, Rodrigues CCM, Sartori AMC, de Soárez PC, Novaes Hillegonda MD. Economic evaluation of adolescents and adults’ pertussis vaccination: A systematic review of current strategies, Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics. 2019;15(1):14–27 https://doi: 10.1080/21645515.2018.1509646.

31. Zepp F, Heininger U, Mertsola J, et al. Rationale for pertussis booster vaccination throughout life in Europe. Lancet Infect. 2011;11(7):557–570. https://doi: 10.1016/S1473- 3099(11)70007-X.

32. Atkins K.E. Cost-effectiveness of pertussis vaccination during pregnancy in the United States. Am J Epidemiol. 2016;183(12):1159–1170. https://doi: 10.1093/aje/kwv347.

33. van Hoek A.J. Cost-effectiveness and programmatic benefits of maternal vaccination against pertussis in England. J Infect. 2016;73(1):28–37. https://doi: 10.1016/j. jinf.2016.04.012.

34. Okyay RA, Sahin AS, Rene A, Aguinada RA, Tasdogan M. Why are children less affected by COVID-19? Could there be an overlooked bacterial co-infection? EJMO. 2020;4:104–105.

35. Salama ME, Hagar MAT, Khaled ME. Could Bordetella pertussis vaccine protect against coronavirus COVID-19? J Glob Antimicrob Resist. 2020;22:803–805. https://doi: 10.1016/j.jgar.2020.07.005.

36. Ismail MB, Omari SA, Rafei R, Dabboussi F, Hamze M. COVID-19 in children: Could pertussis vaccine play the protective role? Med Hypotheses. 2020;145:110305. https://doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2020.110305.