Comparison of the First Three Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Russia in 2020–21

Relevance. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in the world, which is characterized by a long undulating course, requires an in-depth study of the features of the epidemic process, including the influence of natural, climatic and social factors on it. 
Aim. Compare the intensity of three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia. To identify the features of the parameters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia in the age groups of the population and in the federal districts. 
Materials and methods. Data from the computer database of the Influenza Research Institute and the Stop-coronavirus website were used. 
Results. The construction of the weekly dynamics of COVID-19 made it possible to clarify the start, peak and end dates of each wave in megacities, federal districts and among the population of the Russia. 
Conclusion. In the dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19 in the population of the Russian Federation from March 2020 to September 2021, three waves were detected: I spring-summer wave, II autumn-winter, III spring -summer. All three waves started in megacities, first in Moscow, and spread across federal districts. The rise of morbidity in Russia as a whole began and peaked in the autumn-winter wave later than in the spring-summer waves (immediately after the megacities). The total duration of the epidemic and the period of its development in the autumn-winter wave were longer than in the spring-summer waves. Morbidity, hospitalization and mortality depended on age, and in all three waves were higher among people over 65 years of age. The intensity of COVID-19 in the first spring-summer wave was the lowest. The II autumn-winter wave was the most intense in terms of morbidity, hospitalization rate and mortality in all age groups. The III spring-summer wave in terms of morbidity and hospitalization was less intensive, than the II autumn-winter wave, but there were no significant differences between the mortality rates in the II and III wave hospitalization and fatal outcomes were revealed.

1. Bavrina A.P., Saperkin N.V., Drugova O.V., Karjakin N.N., Kovalishena O.V. Comparative Characteristics of a Subsequent Morbidity Wave COVID-19 in Various Regions of the World. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2021;20(4):89–102 (in Russ). https:doi.org/10.31631/2073–3046–2021–20–4–89–102

2. Nechaev V.V., Lobzin Yu.V., Gusev D.A., Gorziy E.S. On the possible causes of the undulating course of the epidemic processSars-Cov-2 [abstract]. Journal of Infectology. 2021;13(Suppl 1): S.57 (in Russ).

3. Kovalev E.V., Tverdokhlebova T.I., Karpushenko G.V., Erganova E.G., Agafonova V.V., Ryndich A.A., et al. Epidemiological situation of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the Rostov region: analysis and forecast. Medical Herald of the South of Russia. 2020;11(3):69–78 (In Russ). https:doi.org/10.21886/2219–8075–2020–11–3–69–78

4. Kovalev E.V., Slis S.S., Yanovich E.G., Pichurina N.L., Volovikova S.V., Gaevskaya N.E., et al. Some features of the epidemic spread of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the Rostov Region. Medical Herald of the South of Russia. 2020;11(4):99–106 (In Russ). https:doi.org/10.21886/2219–8075–2020–11–4–99–106

5. Pankov A.S., Korneev A.G., Nosyreva S.Yu. Specific Features of the Spread of New Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in Orenburg Region. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2021;20(3):19–29 (In Russ). https:doi.org/ 10.31631/2073–3046–2021–20–3–19–29

6. Akimkin V.G., Kuzin S.N., Semenenko T.A., Shipulina O.Yu., Yatsyshina S.B., Tivanova E.V. Patterns of theSars-Cov-2 epidemic spread in a megacity. Voprosy virusologii. 2020; 65(4): 203–11 (in Russ). https:doi.org/10.36233/0507–4088–2020–65–4–203–211

7. Popova A.Yu., Ezhlova E.B., Mel’nikova A.A., Bashketova N.S., Fridman R.K., Lyalina L.V., et al. Herd immunity toSars-Cov-2 among the population in Saint–Petersburg during the COVID-19 epidemic. Problemy osobo opasnykh infektsiy. 2020;(3):124–30 (in Russ). https:doi.org/10.21055/0370–1069–2020–3–124–130

8. Stopkoronavirus.rf. Available at: https:стопкоронавирус.рф

9. Pshenichnaya N.Yu., Lizinfeld I.A., Zhuravlev G.Yu., Ploskireva А.A., Akimkin V.G. Epidemic process of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation: interim results. 1th report. Infekc. bolezni (Infectious diseases). 2020;18(3):7–14 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.20953/1729–9225–2020–3–7–14

10. Karpova I.S., Stolyarov K.A., Popovtseva N.M., Stolyarova T.P. Territorial and Temporary Spread of COVID-19 in the World at the Beginning of the 2020 Pandemic. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2021;20(4):19–27 (In Russ.). https:doi.org/10.31631/2073–3046–2021–20–4–19–27

11. Bilichenko T.N. Epidemiology of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID–19).Academy of medicine and sports. 2020;1(2):14–20 (In Russ.) https:doi.org/10.15829/2712–7567–2020–2–15

12. Akimkin VG., Kuzin SN., Kolosovskaya EN., Kudryavtceva EN., Semenenko TA., Ploskireva AA., et al. Assessment of the COVID-19 epidemiological situation in St. Petersburg. Journal of microbiology, epidemiology and immunobiology. 2021; 98(5):497–511 (in Russ). doi: https:doi.org/10.36233/0372–9311–154

13. Akimkin V.G., Kuzin S.N., Semenenko T.A., Ploskireva A.A., Dubodelov D.V., Tivanova E.V., et al. Gender–age distribution of patients with COVID-19 at different stages of epidemic in Moscow. Problemy osobo opasnykh infektsiy. 2020;(3):27–35 (in Russ). https:doi.org/10.21055/0370–1069–2020–3–27–35

14. Karpova L.S., Lioznov D.A., Stolyarov K.A., Popovtseva N.M., Stolyarova T.P. COVID-19 in Russia. Spring–Summer Period of the Pandemic 2020. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2020;19(6):18– 27 (In Russ). https:doi.org/10.31631/2073–3046–2020–19–6–18–27

15. Sominina A.A., Danilenko D.M., Stolyarov K.A., Karpova L.S., Bakaev M.I., Levanyuk T.P., et al. Interference ofSars-Cov-2 with other Respiratory Viral Infections agents during Pandemic. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2021;20(4):28–39 (In Russ.). https:doi.org/10.31631/2073–3046–2021–20–4–28–39

16. Ratnikova L.I., Popov E.G. Age-related features of the course of a new coronavirus infection. [abstract]. Journal of Infectology. 2021;13(Suppl 1):S.69 (in Russ).

17. Cherkashina A. S., Golubeva, A. G., Solov’eva E. D., Aldohina A. V., Bulanenko V. P., Petrov V. V., et al. Comparative analysis of screening methods for the detection of point mutations on the example of the identification of mutations N501Y the coronavirus SARS–CoV–2. Epidemiology and Infectious disease. Current issues. 2021;11(4):31–37 (In Russ.). DOI:https:dx.doi.org/10.18565/epidem.2021.11.4.31–37

18. Borisova N.I., Kotov I.A., Kolesnikov A.A., Kaptelova V.V., Speranskaya A.S., Kondrasheva L.Yu., et al. Monitoring the spread of theSars-Cov-2 (Coronaviridae: Coronavirinae: Betacoronavirus; Sarbecovirus) variants in the Moscow region using targeted high-throughput sequencing. Problems of Virology. 2021;66(4):269–278 (In Russ.) https:doi.org/10.36233/0507–4088–72

19. Klink G.V., Safina K.R., Garushyants S.K., Moldovan M., Nabieva E., Komissarov A.B., et al. Spread of endemic Sars-Cov-2 lineages in Russia. medRxiv. 2021; Preprint. https:doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.25.2 1257695

20. Savilov ED. Management of the Incidence of Infectious Diseases by Applying Preventive Measures in the Weakest Period in Its Cyclicity. Annals of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021;76(1):20–27 (In Russ.). doi: https:doi.org/10.15690/vramn1349

21.