Solved and Problematic Issues of Influenza epidemiology one hundred years after Spanish Flu Pandemic
https://doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2019-18-5-109-120
Abstract
The history of influenza pandemics of the 20th century and the 2009 pandemic is analyzed, as well as the stages of parallel development of the influenza doctrine. Hypotheses and theoretical aspects explaining the mechanisms of formation of seasonal epidemics and pandemics are considered. Zooanthroponosis locates the Genesis of pandemic influenza type A and type anthropogenic the essence of seasonal drift epidemics of influenza of all types. Taking into account the diversity of opinions of experts, it is proposed to return to the discussion of controversial epidemiological and virological issues officially recognized by WHO in 2009 of the pandemic to develop a unified concept of pandemic influenza on the basis of multi-level variability of the pathogens. We discuss the possibility of improving the prediction of epidemiological (epizoonotic) influenza situation by complex monitoring of the predictors of pandemics (epidemics, epizoonotics) in the hog production regions laboratories, epidemiological and veterinary profile. It is assumed that the probable causative agent of the next pandemic will be influenza virus of serasubtype A (Н2N2).
About the Authors
A. B. Belov
Medical Academy named after S.M. Kirov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander B. Belov – Cand. Sci. (Med.), associate professor of Department of General and Military Epidemiology of Military Medical Academy named after S. M. Kirov.
6, Litera Zh, Аcademician Lebedev str., St. Petersburg., 194044.
+7 9315428624.
P. V. Kulikov
Medical Academy named after S.M. Kirov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pavel V. Kulikov – adjunct offederal of Military Medical Academy named after S. M. Kirov.
6, Litera Zh, Аcademician Lebedev str., St. Petersburg, 194044.
References
1. Brico N.I. 100 Years after the Spanish Flu Pandemic. A New Stage of Vaccinal Prevention. Epidemiologia i vaccinoprofilactica [Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention]. 2018; Vol. 17, 4: 68–83. (In Russ.).
2. Stallibrass K. Fundamentals of epidemiology. Lanewith English. The state publishing house; 1936: 592. (In Russ.).
3. Zhdanov V.M., Soloviev V.D., Epstein F.G. Тhe doctrine of the Influenza. M: Medicine; 1958: 581 (In Russ.).
4. Kilburrn E.D. Тhe influenza Viruses and influenza: Lane from English. M: Medicine; 1978: 580. (In Russ.).
5. Influenza and other respiratory viral infections: epidemiology, prevention, diagnosis and therapy. Under the editorship of O.I. Kiselyova, I.G. Marinich, A.A. Sominina. Moskow: Borges; 2003: 244. (In Russ.).
6. Influenza. Epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment, prevention. Under the editorship of O.I. Kiselyova, L.M. Tsybalova, V.I. Pokrovsky. M: MIA; 2012: 496. (In Russ.).
7. Kuznetsov O.K., Stepanova L.A., Churikova A.A.еt al. Population immunity to seasonal influenza as the main factor limiting the global epidemic of 2009 – 2010 A(H1N1). Epidemiologia i vaccinoprofilactica [Epidemiology and Vaccine Prevention]. 2010; 4 (53): 9 17. (In Russ.).
8. Belov A.B., Ogarkov P.I. Zoonotic Influenza (bird flu): dangers Epidemiologia i vaccinoprofilactica [Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention]. 2007; 5 (36): 3–8. (In Russ.).
9. Karpova L.S., Stolyarova T.P., Popovtseva N.M. et al. Differences in the epidemics of influenza 2014-2017 according to their etiology. Epidemiologia i vaccinoprofilactica [Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention]. 2018; 1 (98): 13–19. (In Russ.).
10. On the outcome of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)-09 in the world and the Russian Federation in the epidemic season 2009-2010 and the forecast for the season 2010-2011 the Letter of Rospotrebnadzor No 01/5578-10-32 from 13.04. 2010. (In Russ.).
11. Brico N.I. Onishchenko G.G., Pokrovsky V.I. Guide to the epidemiology of infectious diseases. M: MIA; 2019: Vol. 1: 395–419. (In Russ.).
12. Kilbourne E.D. Perspectives on рandemics: research agends. J. infectious Diseases. 1997; Vol. 176, 1: 8– 31.
13. Belyakov V.D., Golubev D.B., Kaminskii G.D., Tеts V.V. Self-regulation of parasitic systems. Leningrad: Medicine; 1987: 240. (In Russ.).
14. Gendon Y.Z. Swine-origin Influenza H1N1/California – passions and facts. Journal of Microbiology. 2010; 4: 105–114. (In Russ.).
15. Ghendon Y.Z. Тhe Possibility of Influenza pandemic prediction. Journal of Microbiology. 2016; 3: 113–120. (In Russ.).
16. Webster R.G. Predictions for future human Influenza рandemics. J. infectious Diseases. 1997; Vol. 176, 1: 14–19.
17. Hampson A.W. Surveillance for Pandemic Influenza. J. infectious Diseases. 1997; Vol. 176, 1: 8–13.
18. Onishchenko G.G., Kiselev O.I., Sominina A.A. Strengthening of influenza surveillance and control as the most important element of preparation for seasonal epidemics and the next pandemic: Leadership. M. SPb.: Rose of the World; 2004. 124 p. (In Russ.).
19. Pokrovsky V.I., Kiselev O.I., Lobanova T.P.and al.Avian influenza: the origin of infectious bicatali. Under the editorship of V.I. Pokrovsky. Preprint. – St. Petersburg: Rostock, 2006. 270 p. (In Russ.).
20. Yakovlev A.A., Baranov N.I. Theoretical aspects of epidemiological evaluation of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in 2009-2010. Epidemiologiya i infekcionnye bolezni [Epidemiology and infectious diseases]. 2012; 3: 10–17. (In Russ.).
21. Belov A.B., Ogarkov P.I. Disputable issues of the epidemiology and prevention of influenza accordingto the results of A preliminary analysis of the epidemic situation in 2009-2010. Epidemiologiya i infekcionnye bolezni [Epidemiology and infectious diseases]. 2011; 3: 38–42. (In Russ.).
22. Belov A.B., Ogarkov P.I. Analysis of the epidemiological situation of influenza A(H1N1) and epidemic forecast. Epidemiologia i vaccinoprofilactica [Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention]. 2010; 1 (50): 45–51. (In Russ.).
23. Yakovleva A.A., Kotlyarova S.I., Musatov V.B. et al. Three epidemic seasons of influenza of 2009 – 2013. Epidemiologiya i infekcionnye bolezni [Epidemiology and infectious diseases]. 2014; 2: 33–39. (In Russ.).
24. Yakovleva T.V., Briko N.I., Gerasimova A.N. et al. Comparative characteristics of epidemic seasons of influenza 2015 – 2016 and 2009 – 2010. Journal of Microbiology. 2017; 1: 11 – 19. (In Russ.).
25. Russell K.L., Taubenberger J.K. The Influenza Pandemic of 1918: Let Us Not Forget. In Strengthening Influenza Pandemic Preparedness through Civil-Military Cooperation. NATO ScienceSeries. IOSPress.2005; Vol. 360: 57 – 63.
26. BelovA.B. Onatypicity «SARS».Epidemiologiya i infekcionnyebolezni [Epidemiology and infectious diseases].2008; 2: 57–61. (In Russ.).
27. WHO global influenza strategy plan. Available at: https://www.who.int/influenza/en/.
28. Kharchenko E. P. ThreeLevelsof the Predicting of the Influenza Vaccine Strains. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2019; 18 (2): 4–17 (In Russ.).
29. On approval of the plan of gradual transition to the use of quadrivalent vaccines for the prevention of influenza. Press release from 25.01.2019. Available at: https://rospotrebnadzor.ru/search/index.php?q=%EF%F0%E5%F1%F1-%F0%E5%EB%E8%E7%FB&s=%A0 (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Belov A.B., Kulikov P.V. Solved and Problematic Issues of Influenza epidemiology one hundred years after Spanish Flu Pandemic. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2019;18(5):109-120. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2019-18-5-109-120
Views:
1910
Email this article 