Epidemiological Characteristics of Measles in Vietnam and the Russian Federation, 2000–2024

Relevance. Measles remains one of the most contagious infections in the world; despite the availability of an effective vaccine, disease outbreaks continue to be reported in both lowand high-immunization-coverage countries. The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions in healthcare systems and led to the accumulation of a susceptible population, making a comparative analysis of the epidemic process in countries with different social and climatic conditions, such as Vietnam and the Russian Federation, relevant for understanding common patterns and regional features.

Aim. To compare the main epidemiological characteristics of measles in Vietnam and the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2024.

Materials and Methods. A descriptive epidemiological study was conducted based on statistical data from open sources of the WHO (JRF, WUENIC) and national epidemiological surveillance systems. Incidence rates per 100,000 population, coverage rates for one and two doses of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine were analyzed.

Results. In both countries, cyclical patterns in the epidemic process persist with intervals of 2–5 years. In Vietnam, against a background of high (94 ± 3.33 %) but unstable vaccination coverage, a general trend towards decreasing incidence after 2007 is observed. In the Russian Federation, with more stable and high coverage (97.9 ± 0.26 % for MMR-1), an increasing incidence phase has been observed since 2008 (average annual growth rate of 25.2 %), reaching its maximum for the entire observation period in 2024 (15.51 per 100,000). The age structure of incidence in both countries is characterized by predominant involvement of children under 1 year and 2–4 years; however, in the Russian Federation, the most recent upsurge also involved children aged 5–9 years. A relative synchronicity of rises and declines in incidence was identified between the two countries, including a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) and a subsequent sharp increase in 2023–2024.

Conclusion. Despite differences in vaccination schedules and climate, the measles epidemic process in Vietnam and the Russian Federation is characterized by similar cyclical patterns. Consistently high national average vaccination coverage does not guarantee the absence of outbreaks and may mask local immunity gaps. The increasing incidence in the Russian Federation, despite high coverage, may be associated with the accumulation of non-immune populations among adults, imported cases, and vaccination deficiencies in certain groups. The obtained data justify the need for monitoring immunization at the subnational level, catch-up vaccination, and considering adjustments to the immunization schedule (towards earlier initiation of vaccination) to reduce incidence among young children. 

1. World Health Organization. Global measles threat continues to grow as another year passes with millions of children unvaccinated [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2025 Aug 8]. Available from: https://www.who.int/news/item/16-11-2023-global-measles-threat-continues-to-grow-as-another-year-passes-with-millions-of-children-unvaccinated

2. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe; UNICEF. European Region reports highest number of measles cases in more than 25 years – UNICEF, WHO/Europe [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Aug 8]. Available from: https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/13-03-2025-european-region-reports-highest-number-of-measles-cases-inmore-than-25-years---unicef--who-europe

3. Liu L, Oza S, Hogan D, Perin J, Rudan I, Lawn JE, et al. Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2000–13, with projections to inform post-2015 priorities: an updated systematic analysis. Lancet. 2015;385(9966):430–40. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61698-6

4. Ong T, Thuy CT, Tam NH, Nga LH, Uyen NTV, Lan TTT, et al. Detection of Immunity Gap before Measles Outbreak, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2024. Emerg Infect Dis. 2025;31(10):2059–62. doi: 10.3201/eid3110.250234

5. Aidinov GT, Govorukhina MV, Shvager MM. Ob epidemicheskoy situatsii po kori v Rostovskoy oblasti. Infektsiya i immunitet. 2012;2(1-2):502–6. (In Russ).

6. Simakova YuV, Gushchin VA, Semenenko TA, et al. Otsenka populyatsionnogo immuniteta k kori, krasnukhe i epidemicheskomu parotitu v Moskve na sovremennom etape. Voprosy virusologii. 2025;70(2):133–46. doi: 10.36233/0507-4088-282 (In Russ).

7. World Health Organization. Measles deaths down 88 % since 2000, but cases surge [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Aug 8]. Available from: https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2025-measles-deaths-down-88--since-2000--but-cases-surge

8. Choisy M, Trinh ST, Nguyen TND, Nguyen TH, Mai QL, Pham QT, et al. Sero-Prevalence Surveillance to Predict Vaccine-Preventable Disease Outbreaks: A Lesson from the 2014 Measles Epidemic in Northern Vietnam. Open Forum Infect Dis. 2019;6(3):ofz030. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofz030

9. Pokrovskiy VI, Briko NI. Obshchaya epidemiologiya s osnovami dokazatelnoy meditsiny. 2nd ed. Moscow: GEOTAR-Media; 2012. (In Russ).

10. Berche P. History of measles. Presse Med. 2022;51(3):104149. doi: 10.1016/j.lpm.2022.104149

11. Tsvirkun OV, Gerasimova AG, Tikhonova NT, Turaeva NV, Pimenova AS. Struktura zabolevshikh koryu v period eliminatsii. Epidemiologiya i vaktsinoprofilaktika. 2012;2(63):21–6. (In Russ).

12. Packham A, Taylor AE, Karangwa MP, Sherry E, Muvunyi C, Green CA. Measles Vaccine Coverage and Disease Outbreaks: A Systematic Review of the Early Impact of COVID-19 in Low and Lower-Middle Income Countries. Int J Public Health. 2024;69:1606997. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2024.1606997

13. Glasser JW, Feng Z, Omer SB, Smith PJ, Rodewald LE. The effect of heterogeneity in uptake of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine on the potential for outbreaks of measles: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;16(5):599–605. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00004-9

14. Herzog SA, Paul M, Held L. Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data. Epidemiol Infect. 2011;139(4):505–15. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810001664

15. World Health Organization; UNICEF. WHO-UNICEF estimates of MCV1 coverage [Internet]. [cited 2025 Aug 8]. Available from: https://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/timeseries/tswucoveragemcv1.html

16. Pham VH, Nguyet DP, Mai KN, Truong KH, Huynh LV, Pham TH, Abe K. Measles Epidemics Among Children in Vietnam: Genomic Characterization of Virus Responsible for Measles Outbreak in Ho Chi Minh City, 2014. EBioMedicine. 2014;1(2-3):133–40. doi: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2014.10.015

17. Nguyen THT, Faes C, Hens N. Measles epidemic in Southern Vietnam: an age-stratified spatio-temporal model for infectious disease counts. Epidemiol Infect. 2022;150:e169. doi: 10.1017/S0950268822001431

18. Muscat M, Ben Mamou M, Reynen-de Kat C, Jankovic D, Hagan J, Singh S, Datta SS. Progress and Challenges in Measles and Rubella Elimination in the WHO European Region. Vaccines (Basel). 2024;12(6):696. doi: 10.3390/vaccines12060696

19. De Serres G, Markowski F, Toth E, Landry M, Auger D, Mercier M, et al. Largest measles epidemic in North America in a decade—Quebec, Canada, 2011: contribution of susceptibility, serendipity, and superspreading events. J Infect Dis. 2013;207(6):990–8. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jis923

20. Glasser JW, Feng Z, Omer SB, Smith PJ, Rodewald LE. The effect of heterogeneity in uptake of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine on the potential for outbreaks of measles: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;16(5):599–605. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00004-9